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4 Dec 2025

The MED This Week newsletter provides informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we shed light on the meaning Pope’s visit to Türkiye and Lebanon, the first of his pontificate.

The first step sets the tone. Pope Leo’s six-day journey through Türkiye and Lebanon has just drawn to a close, marking the first international trip of his pontificate and an unmistakable signal of where he intends to direct the Vatican’s diplomatic gaze. Throughout the trip, Leo stressed the need to strengthen unity within the Christian world, deepen relations with Orthodox churches – strained further by the war in Ukraine – and with Muslim communities and firmly reject any instrumentalisation of religion for violence or political gain. The visit unfolded despite the ongoing Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon, underscoring both the urgency of the moment and his desire to stand close to communities long scarred by conflict. His stop at Istanbul’s Blue Mosque, along with his meeting with Türkiye’s Chief Rabbi and the visit to the Diyanet – Türkiye’s Presidency of Religious Affairs – all signalled a renewed commitment to interreligious cooperation. In Lebanon, Pope Leo’s appeal to “cast off the armour of ethnic and political divisions” resonated as both pastoral encouragement and a nuanced invitation to rebuild social and political trust. Whether his Middle East debut is primarily symbolic or heralds a more assertive Vatican role in a moment of escalating risks, it clearly aims to draw the international community’s attention back to the plight of Christians in the region. He hinted at the Holy See’s intention to remain engaged in efforts to resolve both the Israeli Palestinian conflict and Lebanon’s increasingly volatile situation, reaffirming support for a two-state solution and a clear condemnation of violence. Repeatedly invoking the horror of war, the need for resilience and the imperative of unity in the face of political and economic devastation, Pope Leo’s visit highlighted the role that Ankara and Beirut can play not merely as victims of regional instability, but as active actors in shaping its resolution.

Experts from the ISPI network discuss on the meaning Pope’s visit to Türkiye and Lebanon, the first of his pontificate.

Leo XIV between Russia and the Middle East: The diplomatic weight of his first apostolic journey

“Although the destination of the first apostolic journey of Pope Leo XIV was not really chosen, but somehow imposed by external factors – such as the celebration of the 1700th anniversary of the first ecumenical council of Nicaea (Türkiye) and the long-planned yet unrealized visit to Lebanon during the late Pope Francis’s pontificate – the way it unfolded will have a significant impact on many levels. The ecumenical event in Iznik highlighted the deep fragmentation within Christianity today, specifically on the Orthodox side, marked by the absence of the Patriarchs of Moscow, Antioch, and others, due to the divisive war in Ukraine. The world is still waiting to see whether Pope Leo XIV will or not have an initiative on this front and how he will engage with Russia. On the other hand, the Pope was welcomed in Lebanon as a peacemaker, and the head of the Shiite (Muslim) community, close to Hezbollah, addressed him with these words: ‘Let us place the issue of Lebanon in your hands.’ The Pope’s indirect response came in his farewell message: ‘We must recognise that armed struggle brings no benefit. While weapons are lethal, negotiation, mediation and dialogue are constructive. Let us all choose peace as a way, and not just as a goal!’ The Lebanese will be expecting from the Vatican to play a mediating role in relation to the conflict with Israel. Vatican diplomacy will therefore be monitored more closely than ever on these two fronts: Russia and the Middle East.”

Fadi Daou, Executive Director of Globethics, Geneva

The Pope’s visit to Türkiye as a call to solidarity and dialogue

“Pope Leo XIV’s visit highlighted three main aspects. First of all, it expressed a call for unity among Christian churches as a necessity for greater solidarity among peoples, at a time of serious difficulty for the Orthodox world due to the war between Russia and Ukraine. Secondly, Leo XIV acknowledged the crucial role that Türkiye can play today in mediating and mitigating conflict in a very large and turbulent geopolitical area in which Türkiye is located at its centre (the Balkans, the Black Sea, the Caucasus, and the Middle East). Finally, the visit encouraged the Turkish Catholic Church and Christians in Türkiye not only to live according to community-based logic, but also to commit themselves to the common good of society as a whole. In this way, he also reaffirmed the role of Christian communities which, although a minority, represent a fundamental factor of pluralism in Turkish society.”

Giorgio Del Zanna, Associate Professor, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore

In Lebanon Pope Leo XIV confronts a Christian community torn apart

“The Lebanese Christian community has been experiencing difficult years. Affected by high levels of emigration, the impoverishment of the middle class caused by the economic crisis and a growing sense of political decline, many Lebanese Christians cling to traditional parties as a way to reaffirm their identity. Yet these parties struggle to form coalitions or present a united political front, becoming instead mired in constant internal rivalries. Pope Leo XIV’s visit took place against this backdrop of crisis and amid a marked attempt by the community to reclaim its distinct identity. His meetings with the country’s main leaders and young Christians, as well as his visits to important religious sites, such as the Monastery of Saint Maron, were intended to reaffirm both the need for unity within Lebanese society and the significance of the Christian community to the country as a whole. Although the visit did not draw crowds comparable to those seen during Pope John Paul II’s trip in 1997, Leo XIV sought to deliver a message of unity. However, even such an important event became entangled in the crossfire of political competition. The decision not to invite Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea –  justified by the provisions of Lebanese decree 4081 of 1960, which governs protocols for such official ceremonies, as well as by Vatican protocol –  once again fuelled criticism from Maarab, Lebanese Forces’ headquarters, towards the Presidency of the Republic. This criticism from the country’s main Christian party echoed earlier disputes over Hezbollah’s disarmament and the reform of the electoral system. It may be mere rhetoric, but it confirms yet again that the political dignitaries already have their eyes firmly set on next year’s parliamentary elections.”

Luigi Toninelli, MENA Centre, ISPI

A century of decline: how nationalism reshaped the fate of Middle Eastern Christians

“The rise of nationalism and nation-states in the Middle East following the destruction of the Ottoman Empire has been traumatic for religious minorities. In every Middle East country, minority communities have been in rapid decline. In Syria, Christians made up some 14% of the population in 1945. Today, they may make up less than 3%. In Lebanon, Christians made up 50% of the population in 1932. Today they are believed to be less than 33%. This decline is caused in large part by the fact that nationalism in the region is intimately connected with religion and communal identity, and thus minorities have been marginalized and often discriminated against. This identity problem is made infinitely worse by the spread of civil wars across the region, which have increased communal animosities and poverty. The Pope’s visit to the region is a balm for many Christians who believe that they have been forgotten by the West. It is unlikely, however, that his concern and prayers can protect Christians in the region.”

Joshua Landis, Sandra Mackey Chair and Professor in Middle East Studies, University of Oklahoma

The contemporary’s decline of Iraq’s Christians amid economic hardship and social fragmentation

“Despite Iraq’s oil wealth, many Christian communities (like many other Iraqis) continue to struggle economically, as resources rarely reach ordinary citizens. Politically, the power-sharing quota system, designed to secure Christian representation, has often been dominated by elites pursuing their own interests, preventing meaningful advocacy for the community’s real needs. Socially, decades of conflict, sanctions, and displacement have driven large-scale migration, reducing the Christian population from over one million in 2003 to fewer than 250,000 today, resulting in a weakened cultural presence and diminished sense of security. This situation is compounded by internal fragmentation, as divisions among churches and political or armed groups have created mistrust. Rather than promoting unity, competition for influence has hindered the development of a collective strategy to ensure that Christians can enjoy a decent standard of living in Iraq. Many Iraqi Christians celebrated the Pope’s recent visit to Lebanon, viewing such moments – just as they did with Pope Francis’s historic visit to their country in 2021– as rare opportunities to draw international attention to their cause.”

Renad Mansour, Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House